特朗普“纸老虎”，没吓住别人，却引火烧身（中英双语）

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编者按：环球时报英文版第39篇“变局”专栏，作者中国人民大学重阳金融研究院执行院长王文透过疫情期在义乌调研的有趣事例，大胆地判断，“特朗普其实是一只纸老虎”，“相比于中国转型升级产生的国内挑战，特朗普对中国的实际冲击力是有限的”。这是继上周提出“骂（scold）战”而非“冷（cold）战”之后，又一篇引起不少海外人士关注的英文评论。人大重阳君为您推荐英文版、中文译文。

本文英文版在Global Times的版面截图

　　特朗普宣布制裁香港、驱赶部分中国留学生那天，我正在义乌调研。特朗普竞选品大多从这个中国南方的小城市、也是全球最大的小商品贸易集散地购买。据说，2016年美国大选，义乌人通过应援旗帜、帽子、T恤衫等订单数量比例，成功预测特朗普的当选。

　　我没有获得2020年美国大选的义乌订单数，却听说好几家义乌企业改行做口罩卖给美国而发了大财。2019年中美经贸摩擦，义乌对外进出口总值逆势增长了15.9%，对美贸易更是增长了35.6%。

　　给我印象最深的，不只是义乌商人在美国对华施压背景下灵活且高效的策略调整，更是对特朗普狂妄之势的淡然。在金义新区，义乌西南部正在全力打造的新城区，人们像买白菜似地抢购房子。我问询一位1小时内买了两套公寓的年轻人：“特朗普天天打压中国，你不怕房价降吗？”他答道：“那个天天闹笑话的美国总统吗？哈，别理他！”

　　这个回答让我深思。特朗普几乎把“中国”当成了每天讲话的必用词，但对14亿中国人生活的真实冲击，恐怕并没有像媒体所关注的那么大。中国人尤其是年轻一代拥有时代赋予的自信，完全有能力、有智慧应对来自特朗普的外部挑战，甚至藐视他的存在。

　　从这个角度看，特朗普真是一只纸老虎。当下中国发展当然存在着诸多挑战，那主要是源于国家发展自身的转型升级与结构调整。相比之下，特朗普对中美关系的折腾，产生对中国的实际冲击力实在是有限的，许多时候反而在帮助中国。

　　他发动对华贸易战，并没有颠覆性地减少中国贸易总量与中国对美顺差，反而倒逼中国的金融开放进程；他打压中国留学生与华裔科学家，逼迫不少人才回流中国；他拿一国之力蛮横无理地压制华为公司，却像是给华为做促销；他驱赶中概股与中国海外投资，结果是打消了不少中国富人往美国转移资产的念头；他宣称制裁香港，将诫训香港精英最终对美国放弃幻想。

　　从几年前的国家安全战略、国家国防战略，再到5月20日白宫发布《美国对中华人民共和国的战略方针》，尽管看上去美国对中国虎视眈眈，但在明眼人看来却是美国对中国崛起的黔驴技穷，既遏制不了中国崛起，也不能借中美博弈提升美国国家利益。

　　过去三年多，特朗普几乎没有做成任何一件国际大事。退出伊核协议，导致美伊关系坠入底谷；美朝关系彻底失去信任；叙利亚、阿富汗撤军与和解遥遥无期。连美国赖以生存的西方G7联盟，也变得摇摇欲坠。换句话说，他不满全球化这座房子，但做的只是拆毁了几根房梁，看不出来他到底是要建新房，还是就想拆房。

　　我甚至对特朗普产生一丝同情，每天他像更年期的怨妇，絮叨着世界每一个角落对美国的不公，从每一个国家到每一个国际组织，从民主党到国内每一家媒体，近期又与他最爱使用的工具推特杠上了。

　　特朗普让美国外交有史以来第一次变成“巨婴”胡闹的形象，也让白宫有史以来第一次显得那么滑稽。去年北约峰会，媒体曝光加拿大总理、英国首相、法国总统、荷兰首相站在一旁取笑特朗普的片段，让他看上去就是一个孤独、可怜、没有朋友的糗老头。这样下去，他或许注定将成为美国历史上最糟糕的总统。

　　特朗普“纸老虎”没有变成真老虎，而是变成了把世界大家庭的沙发、窗帘都抓坏的病猫。他火气太重，抗疫不力，10多万美国人已死亡，失业率达到百年来最高。美国人心中憋着怒火，最终被乔治·弗洛伊德被压脖致死事件而点燃。30多个城市动荡，加之疫情冲击，美国陷入二战结束以来最糟糕的社会状态。

　　中国有句老话，“风水好轮回，上苍饶过谁”。特朗普与一些支持他的美国官员、学者、媒体们难道没有想过“报应”吗？发表《中国是亚洲真正的病夫》文章时，有没有想过自己可能会成为“美洲病夫”？在赞许香港暴徒上街破坏是“一道美丽风景”时，有没有想过这道风景线会在美国更严重地发生？

　　我真诚地提醒特朗普先生，诚如我3月初提醒美国有可能爆发大规模疫情那样，美国曾是伟大的国家，善良的美国人是无辜的。别再撒谎了，别再干坏事了，积点阴德吧！世事无常，如果你真信上帝，你应该相信，公平的上帝，会保佑那些与人为善者，但一定会惩治那些作恶多端之人。

美国危机四伏！特朗普焦头烂额之际，还在想着制裁中国

以下为英文版

How to measure Trump’s impact from Yiwu

By Wang Wen

When US President Donald Trump announced sanctions against Hong Kong and expelled some Chinese students last week, I was doing field research in Yiwu. Most of Trump's campaign souvenirs are made in this Eastern China city, which is also the world's biggest trading center of small commodities.

In 2016, Yiwu's businesspeople allegedly predicted the election of Trump based on the increase in the orders of flags, caps and T-shirts of Trump's campaign.

I don't have the number of orders for the 2020 elections. But I have heard that many companies in Yiwu have shifted to producing surgical masks for export - some are making a fortune from this.

Amid China-US trade frictions in 2019, imports and exports of Yiwu increased 15.9 percent bucking the trend. In fact, trade with the US increased 35.6 percent last year.

Spending time with Yiwu businesspeople, I can say that I am most impressed not only by their flexible and effective adjustment strategies against the backdrop of US containment of China, but also their disregard of Trump's ego.

Yiwu's southwestern area is erecting new communities and people are flocking there to buy houses. I asked a young man who bought two apartments in just one hour if he is afraid of house prices plummeting due to Trump's suppression of China. He replied, "Do you mean the US president who messes up every day? Ignore him."

This answer makes me think. "China" has become a daily term for Trump, but his real impact on the lives of 1.4 billion Chinese people is not as much as the media expects. The Chinese, especially the younger generation, are capable and wise enough to cope with challenges posed by Trump.

From this perspective, Trump is merely a paper tiger. At the current stage, China's development is facing multiple challenges, mainly from its own transition and structural adjustment. Trump messing up China-US relations has produced limited impact on China. In some cases it is even helping China.

He launched the trade war against China, yet China's trade volume and trade surplus with the US did not decline. China has accelerated its financial opening process. He suppresses Chinese students and Chinese scientists in the US, prompting many of them to return to China. He mobilized the whole of the US to crack down on Huawei, but in the end Huawei became more well-known. He dispels Chinese companies and China's overseas investment, effectively dissuading wealthy Chinese people to transfer their assets to the US. He announced sanctions against Hong Kong, which taught Hong Kong's elite a lesson - give up illusions on the US.

From the Trump administration's National Security Strategy and the National Defense Strategy to the United States Strategic Approach to the People's Republic of China released by the White House on May 20, it seems as the US is increasingly hostile toward China, it's obvious to people with a clear mind that the US is at its wit's end. The US can neither contain China's rise nor boost its own national interest by exploiting a China-US rivalry.

Trump has made almost no accomplishment on international issue in the past three years. The US withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal led US-Iran relations to hit rock bottom. Mutual trust has been completely lost in US-North Korea relations. And it's still a distant dream to pull US troops out from Syria or Afghanistan, and realize reconciliation with either of them. Even the G7 alliance that the US heavily depends on has been collapsing. In other words, Trump is dissatisfied with the house of globalization. He dismantled several beams of the house, but it's unclear whether he intends to build a new house or if he simply wants to demolish the old one.

With such catastrophes, I even have a little sympathy for Trump who complains every day about the "injustice" the US receives from the world. His targets include other countries, international organizations, the Democratic Party, US media outlets, and even Twitter.

Under his leadership, the US has looked like a "giant infant" in terms of diplomacy and the White House has appeared more absurd. Media exposed a video appearing to show world leaders (including Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, British Prime Minister Boris John and French President Emmanuel Macron) joking about Trump at the NATO summit in London last year, making Trump looked like a lonely, poor old man without friends.

He reacted poorly to the COVID-19 epidemic, leading to a death toll of over 100,000, and the highest unemployment rate in a century. The anger of Americans has finally been ignited by the death of George Floyd, an African-American man who suffocated under the knee of a white policeman in Minneapolis. Unrests have spread in over 30 cities and the epidemic is still raging on - the US has fallen into the worst situation since the end of the WWII.

The US used to be a great country and the Americans are kind and innocent. But under the leadership of current administration, does the US still have the chance to be great again?

（The author is professor and executive dean of Chongyang Institute for Financial Studies at Renmin University of China, and executive director of China-US People-to-People Exchange Research Center. His latest book is Great Power's Long March Road.）

【发布会预告，敬请关注】

主办单位：

北京师范大学出版集团

中国人民大学重阳金融研究院

支持单位：

观视频工作室

系列研讨会一

时间：6月5日（周五）19:30-21:30

主持：著名电视主持人，郎永淳

致辞：北京师范大学出版集团副总编辑，饶涛

中国人民大学重阳金融研究院执行院长，王文

对话：

经济之变？

国务院发展研究中心世界发展研究所研究员，丁一凡

中国人民大学重阳金融研究院助理院长，贾晋京

政势之变？

中国社会科学院政治学研究所党委书记，房宁

中国人民大学重阳金融研究院宏观研究部副研究员，王鹏

系列研讨会二

时间：6月6日（周六）19:30-21:30

对话：

数字之变？

中国科学院正高级工程师评委会主任，谢耘

中国人民大学重阳金融研究院宏观研究部主任，刘玉书

怎样的百年变局？

中国人民大学国际关系学院副院长，金灿荣

中国人民大学重阳金融研究院执行院长，王文

会议观看：请扫描图中二维码进入直播间观看

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